BITCOIN ON CHAIN Analysis: A look at holders after the aftermath of the LUNA and UST crash
The events in the past few days will forever be known as the time where LUNA and UST crashed the market.
Let’s take a look at the on-chain metrics for BTC and looked at how hodlers reacted. All charts based on supply distribution and count will be look from a UTXO perspective. (Unspent transaction output — supplies left after spending BTC)
First, this is the hourly chart going back to mid-April 2022 for holders holding over 10k BTC
Known as the humpback whales. These holders are normally the addresses of crypto exchanges and market makers.
Prior to the crash, the number of addresses holding over 10k BTC has started to decrease (top panel of the chart).
The BTC supplies (bottom panel of the chart) held by humpbacks were getting spent. Within this period before the LUNA and UST event, there was already 64k BTC spent from humpback’s address worth well over $2 Bil USD at the time of the spending.
Then we can see the BTC supplies for these holders spiking back up. This was the move from LUNA Foundation Guard (LFG) that caused the crash from $35K down to $26k for BTC price level.
In the second chart below, we will be looking at holders holding between 1k-10k BTC
It looks like a spike! BUT! let’s look into my analysis of it
*When an address from the 10k supply distribution spends their supplies and if their UTXO falls below 10k and they still have over 1k BTC then those holders move into this data set. *
On here it looks like the number of addresses have spiked, but looking closely, it’s only a net increase of 2 whale address.
If we look at the BTC supplies, there is a decrease in 33.6k BTC worth over $1Bil USD that has been spent. This is when LFG spent their BTC. From looking at the movement and amount, we can tell that they most likely held their holdings in multiple addresses.
However, as an overall, there’s not much BTC supply accumulation that I’m seeing happening from this whale supply distribution. We see this by looking at the BTC supplies held by this group dropping.
This is why I believe the spikes I’m seeing in the number of holders is from holders moving out of the 10K + holders supply distribution.
This 3rd chart is BTC holders holding 100–1k BTC
As an overall, there was a sell off. The total supplies held by this holder group had a decrease of over 75k BTC worth over $2.25 Bil USD that was spent.
In the 4th chart here, we look at holders holding 10–100 BTC
*Just like I mentioned above, when an address from a supply distribution group spends their supplies and if their UTXO falls into a different range then those holders move into the new range set.*
I believe that some of the spike that we are seeing on the chart in this group came from holders holding 100–1K BTC spending their coins. As an overall, holders holding 10–100 BTC had a supply increase of 23K BTC worth around 600 million and we see the number of addresses increasing.
Some accumulation by this group may also have happened.
In the 5th chart here, we look at holders holding 1–10 BTC
Here we also see an increase in the number of addresses and BTC supplies.
BTC supplies increased by approximately 17K BTC worth around $500 Mil USD.
This next chart looks at spending based on holders
A few days before the actual crash of the LUNA & UST event, there was lots of spending done by holders holding 1K-10K BTC.
Here is a closer look at the hourly chart. This tells me that preparations were being made.
Here is the chart on the hourly exchange inflows
The 2 spikes are the movement of the LFG BTC. The red box is the inflows we are currently seeing. The current inflows that we are currently seeing is what I considered normal before all of the capitulation happening.
I’m not seeing much accumulation at the moment for large holders. I like to look at large holders since they are often not retail and are institutions.
This leads me to believing that the recent price movement upward is mostly being bought by retail traders and retail investors.
My caution is that I’m still seeing spending out of the supplies held by large holders. Although, it is not at the scale of what it was a few days ago.
Metrics may change moving forward, but based off of what I’m seeing, I believe that for risk management, it is wise to wait it out and watch what happens next week.
Also, due to the events of LUNA and UST, I’m confident regulations from all governments will probably have a say. something might come out next week regarding the event that can potentially re-spook the market.
There might be a relief rally and there might not be a relief rally. We will have to wait and see.
This article is my quick analysis and interpretation of what I am reading based on on-chain metrics and market data. This article should not be used for making financial decisions.